I've been mulling on whether it's worth writing a draft watch list about potential top five picks that Toronto could select if they wind up with one. I wasn't planning to for the longest time because:
- I assumed Toronto was still likely to make the playoffs, even if its just as a wild card they cling onto
- It seemed like such a longshot for Toronto to wind up missing the playoffs
- They couldn't just miss the playoffs, they have to either being so bad they finish in the bottom five or winning one of the lotteries and moving up
- Toronto has to not trade away the pick to improve their roster right now
Honestly, that second point was what's been holding me back, but since I'm now at the point where I actually do think they're more likely to miss the playoffs than to get back in, I figured... what the hell. I've never been able to write about draft prospects at the top of the draft, so at least it could be fun.
Personally, while I never do rankings there are 8 players I would consider with a top five pick as of right now, and there's a pretty steep dropoff after that. Conveniently, half are forwards and half are defensemen!
FORWARDS
Ivar Stenberg
The guy I would take with the first overall pick? Stenberg. Like McKenna, he is a late 2007 birthday, making him one of the oldest players in this draft. He's also 6'0", like McKenna, and has been a hyped top forward prospect after dominating up through junior. That's where the comparisons end.
Stenberg may not have the same high octane skill as McKenna, but he is a much better player off the puck and a more complete player overall (in my opinion). He's more physical and can handle physical play better. He plays an aggressive, relentless and high pace style that I love. He likely won't be a guy contending for the Selke as a top defensive forward, but he could be only a tier or two below that. At worst, he will not be a major liability like McKenna has looked to me at times.
Stenberg's offensive potential also looks more suited to pro hockey, to me. His 28 points in 29 games in the SHL this year are good for a tie for 25th in the league but is tops for his age group by a long way. It would also be a point per game pace for his draft year that would be ahead of the Sedins and Forsberg. He has plenty of skill, speed and creativity, but he's also a high effort guy who looks more mature and responsible than McKenna.
Gavin McKenna
McKenna is the most purely skilled player in this draft, there's no question in my mind about that. He will produce points and produce a lot of them. He is an extremely gifted playmaker, and loves having the puck on his stick. He makes some plays that can make you want to tear your hair out, but he can also pull off some brilliant plays that make your jaw drop. Because he's so skilled he can pull things off more often than not, so he winds up still having an excellent offensive impact overall.
But I have concerns about the rest of McKenna's game. First, I'm worried his offensive skill will wind up being more as a perimeter playmaker, without an elite impact beyond that. He has a good shot and good puck handling, but he's not that big of a player and doesn't play that physical. He's also pretty poor defensively – maybe not Domi-levels of catastrophically bad, but below average at least. I was not very impressed with for his World Juniors performance in those areas, which did sour me a bit on him even if he had 14 points in 7 games. That's just the player he is.
Now, those areas of concern are not so extreme that I think he's a bad player overall. He's still so skilled that you easily take him in the top five if he's available when your pick comes up. The only question for me is if I'd take him first overall over Stenberg... it's very close to me, but given my usual preferences for players I'm leaning to the Swede as of now.
Tynan Lawrence
Assuming Toronto doesn't wind up with a top two pick, if they want to use this opportunity to draft a top center then there are two options for me. The debate for me is between Caleb Malhotra and Lawrence, and right now I'd lean towards the latter. His season hasn't been smooth sailing – he won the Hlinka with Canada in the summer as one of their top centers, but missed the start of the season in the USHL due to injury. He had 10 goals and 17 points in just 13 games before he made the jump to Boston University in the NCAA, despite being a young 17 year old with an August birthday. So far, he's been adjusting and has only one goal in 7 games.
Lawrence's game is based on a combination of speed, smarts and skill. He has a lot of potential as a true two-way center, with elite offensive skill and defensive impacts. He is smart with his positioning, and his off puck play is very strong – he does a lot of those little things you love to see. He plays at a high pace thanks to his very good/elite skating. He also has a very good shot and can really finish chances at a high level. My biggest concern for him is he's not as good handling or passing the puck as you may want from a top 5 guy. Neither are bad, to be clear, but they're definitely the things he needs to work on the most, and it's the most noticeable on his transitions.
Part of my preference for Lawrence over Malhotra is just that I've seen a good chunk of Lawrence since last season. I watched a lot of Muskegon in the USHL last season because of Vaclav Nestrasil (sigh), and despite Lawrence being a young 16 year old he was arguably their best overall player – especially in the playoffs. I do not doubt that he can stick at center, and he plays with a lot of pace and speed while being defensively responsible.
Caleb Malhotra
The advantages that Malhotra has over Lawrence are his size (6'2" vs 6'0"), playmaking and two-way play. Lawrence isn't a slouch for either of the latter two areas, but Malhotra just seems to be a bit better. He's also been only on an upward trajectory all season with how he's constantly improved, and... honestly I'm kind of talking my way into leaning more towards him as I'm writing this.
As a passer, Malhotra is able to feed pucks into dangerous areas. Because he has good size, he's strong along the boards during the cycle and has very valuable skills when it comes to getting the puck off the boards and into the slot. He has a lot of the little skills that I love to see in players. As a two-way center, he can be relentless at pressuring the other team to create steals and turnovers and to dissuade them from creating more high danger chances. His physical play is quite strong, and he's only getting better in that area since he's grown a couple of inches since the summer.
My biggest question mark with him is his ability to skate and play with the same high pace as pro hockey will require. That's where Lawrence I think has a more significant edge, that and his shot/goal scoring. Malholtra has the definite advantage with his size and passing. Overall, it's very close for me.
DEFENSE
Keaton Verhoeff
Now we get to the defense, and I'll start with Verhoeff. He started the season with enough hype to be considered the main threat to McKenna for first overall. While the hype cooled a bit since then he's still considered to be the top defenseman according to most draft rankings I've seen – though it's not so clearcut to me. Right now, I will not say that I think any of these four defensemen are better prospects than the others.
The big advantages Verhoeff has over the other three are all about his potential. He's the biggest (6'4" and 212 lbs), he's right handed, he's among the youngest with a June birthday, and he has made a lot of significant improvements this season. Despite being one of the youngest players in the NCAA, he's tied for 17th among all defensemen in points (6 goals, 11 assists in 22 games). He also got onto Canada's roster at the World Juniors as a 17 year old, and honestly I was pleasantly surprised with how his play looked overall.
Verhoeff was considered more polished as an offensive defenseman to start the season, and his skill in that area has held up. Where he's shown a lot of improvement as the season has progressed is on defense, where he's had a very strong impact. He's got a very good combination of size and skating, though I wouldn't consider him as one of the top skating defenders in the draft. My biggest concern with him is his ability on transitions, which lags behind his impacts in the offensive and defensive zones. While he's considered more raw, he's also considered to have the biggest potential.
Chase Reid
Honestly, for me I flip flop between liking Reid and Carels (next one mentioned below) the most. As of now, I lean towards Reid because of his potential. Simply put, Reid is already one of the best overall defensemen in the OHL this season – though his current strengths are greater on the offensive side. Despite being a 17 year old, Reid is sitting second in the OHL among all defensemen in points (44) and goals (18) in 39 games played. Reid is an American playing for the Soo, and on the older side with a December 2007 birthday. He made Team USA's World Juniors roster and wound up being used as one of their top defensemen, especially when Cole Hutson got hurt and missed time. He tied for the team lead in points by defensemen with 4 in 5 games.
Why I like him a lot is that he also has pretty good size (6'2"), is a right handed shot, is arguably both the best skating and offense-generating defensemen in this draft. His involvement in offense is all encompassing. He has a good shot and can be a legitimate scoring threat. He's also an elite passer and playmaker who has top impact levels getting it out of his own end, getting it into the offensive zone, and creating scoring chances for his teammates as he quarterbacks possessions from the point. He drives offense not just with the puck, but his movements and activations is done with a high level of intelligence and creates chaos with how it influences the positioning of the defenders.
The two concerns about his game are his risky decision making, and his defensive projection at higher levels. In junior, he rates out with an extremely high defensive impact. For me, I look at Reid and I see a guy who could be Morgan Rielly at worst, but potentially much better defensively as well. Considering he's already very good on defense in junior, I think he's more likely to be better than that in the future than not. That's why I'm so high on him.
Carson Carels
Carels is the youngest of the defensemen I mention here, with a later June birthday than Verhoeff. He's also 6'2", like Reid, but is heavier and more solid physically. While he's no slouch offensively (40 points in 37 games in the WHL), his strengths as a prospect are more on the defensive side.
I'd say Carels plays more of a mature, pro-ready game that coaches will love compared to Reid, which makes him a 'safer' prospect. I quite liked what I saw from Carels at the World Juniors for Canada. He wasn't used in a top role but, considering his age, I thought he looked solid – like a more balanced and broadly skilled version of Ben Danford.
The concerns for Carels are that... well, he's 'safer'. While he can contribute offensively and is more likely to be more reliable defensively, he is nowhere near as good at having a high level impact on the offense or at moving the puck up the ice. Again, he's no slouch in those areas, it's just not his biggest strength or as good as Reid. Honestly, picking between Reid and Carels probably mostly comes down to what kind of defenseman you prefer. I lean Reid, but I wouldn't be disappointed with Carels at all.
Albert Smits
Smits is a guy I'm including mostly because some scouts and rankings have him ahead of Reid and/or Carels. I don't know as much about him as the other three, since I've only seen him at the World Juniors. I would say he's more similar to Verhoeff in that scouts seem to love his projection and all around ability to eat a lot of minutes and just be solid and reliable at everything. He's from Latvia, playing in Finland's top pro league where he has 13 points in 34 games. He was on Latvia's World Juniors team and had one of the highest ice times in the tournament. He's on the older side with a December birthday, but he's also on the bigger side at 6'3" and 205 lbs.
Smits probably leans more towards being a good defensive defenseman, in fact I get the impression he may already be the most polished and could have the highest projection in that area. Like Verhoeff and Carels, he has a solid base on offense so he won't be an all-defense guy, but he may also have the weakest projection in that regard of the four. He's got a lot of range with his reach and mobility, which helps a lot on his defense.
Thanks for reading!
I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.
Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!
