Something I saw Cathy write during this series has really stuck with me, because it helped me coalesce a thought that had been more nebulous to that point. It's something you all won't see until a later T25U25 article comes out, and while I won't spoil who it was about, I will share the snippet that's important: "[Player] took a leap, not a step."
While this wasn't said about Johansson, but he is absolutely an example of a player who has done nothing but take leaps since being drafted by Toronto last year.
| Victor Johansson | Vitals |
|---|---|
| Age as of July 1 | 19.18 |
| Position | LD |
| Height | 6'1" |
| Weight (lbs) | 165 |
| Shoots | L |
| Draft Year | 2024 |
| Draft Number | 120 |
The Player
Part of the problem, I think, in looking at Johansson is that he was an extreme unknown. He didn't play much, when he did it was in a league that is impossible to go back and watch his game tape, and literally nobody had him on their radar so there was maybe one or two short scouting reports about him to get even a basic, baseline understanding of what he was as a player. But I want to illustrate just how far he's come by sharing my documented statements about how good I thought he was.
I wrote this in an early season report on Johansson written last July:
On the other hand, Johansson just has so far to go in in improving so many areas of his game. Let's say that all skills are rated out of 10, and Johansson's is limited at something like 3-4 across the board right now. Is it reasonable to expect them all to grow to 7 or 8? I don't think it is.
Then, in April, I wrote this after recapping Johansson's 2024/25 season:
But having watched him from the pre-season through the playoffs this year, I think I had an incorrect initial assumption of what his level was at the time. Rather than being 3-4 across the board, it was probably already more like 5-6. Either that, or he took a pretty big leap in any of those areas between last season and this one that I didn't see, because I hadn't watched him the previous year.
Now, only 4-5 months after that, I wrote about Johansson's World Junior Summer Showcase tournament with Team Sweden. Two other scouts watching the tournament are referring to him as a "legit prospect" who could play a big role for Sweden at the World Juniors this winter, the other called him "perhaps the most pleasant surprises of this tournament". Personally? I found that just in the time between his season in Sweden ending and the WJSS, he showed a leap in his puck handling, with improvements in every other area as well.
If you haven't read what I've written about him before, read the last two articles I wrote about him linked above. There's lots of videos showing his skills too, to get your own impression. I'll summarize that I find him to be an emerging talent with true two-way potential. He is a wizard with the puck in all three zones and getting better to a scary degree. His defense has potential and could turn into a borderline elite skill if he cleans up the one semi-big concern I still have there (consistency of focus/awareness). He can kill penalties, run the powerplay, hold the lead, push for offense, the lot.
Now, after in April saying I thought he was something like 5-6 across the board in every conceivable area of play for a defenseman, I've already mentally bumped him up to a definite 6-7. That's how far he's come just in the last year, hell even just in the last few months. I think the only reason why he couldn't do well in the SHL next year is if he still hasn't put on enough muscle, and for all I know he has! We haven't seen any updates to his size and weight since what he had by the end of last season. But that's how confident I am in his level of ability.
Now, back to the whole "leap vs step" thing. When you're talking about a later round pick, hell any pick not in the top 15-20 of the draft, the thought that Cathy's statement helped coalesce for me is that these prospects can't just have gradual improvement. To consider how far they have to improve to become legitimate NHL prospects, they have to either have been shockingly underrated/under scouted or to make bigger leaps in their development. Leaps, as in plural. I'd say at least a couple, maybe even a few.
Take Matthew Knies. When I watched his games in the USHL in his draft year, I thought he looked pretty good but nothing special. That summer, he played for Team USA in the World Junior Summer Showcase and already looked way, WAY better. He was a physical force of nature, was pulling off dekes to break opponents' ankles, and had a wicked wrist shot. That carried over to the NCAA that year, where he was a star rookie and top-liner on one of the best teams in the country. He carried that over the next season when he was more a leader, more mature, and became a much better all around player.
Hell, even take Nick Robertson. He was a point per game player in the OHL in his draft year, but the next year he also exploded. His skating and puck handling improved a lot, helping him get the puck to more dangerous areas. His shot got so good he didn't need to be in high danger areas of the ice to score in junior. He was killing penalties. Then he was able to become a top AHL player a season early because of the pandemic. He never reached the same level Knies already has, not to debate the reasons why, but he became a regular NHLer as a late second round pick who was/is undersized to boot. That took leaps, not steps.
Grebyonkin was a tall, lanky guy with some decent playmaking who wasn't even that close to being a point per game player in Russia's junior league. The next season he was one of that same league's best players, then the season after that he was rookie of the year in the KHL, then the season after that he became one of the top power forwards and net-front menaces in the KHL and won the championship. That is basically one big leap per year, every year, for at least three years.
What I'm learning is to distinguish between a leap and a step in terms of improvements, because it is an important recognition. I now trust players who are still in the process of taking those leaps are much more likely to turn into legitimate prospects, especially in the first 2-3 years after the were drafted. And I'm learning to emphasize the need for multiple leaps. I've seen some prospects who arguably had at least one, but then sputtered afterwards even if they were taking smaller steps – Topi Niemelä, Ty Voit, Nick Moldenhauer, potentially Noah Chadwick.
It's why I'm so high on Johansson now. He's taken two leaps already, maybe 1.5 if you want to nitpick. He's come so far already, that he's darn close to the point where he could still turn into a legit prospect if he settles into just taking steps in his improvements after. We'll see after this coming season.
The Votes
So yeah, I was willing to rank him aggressively this year. In fact, I had him ahead of Henry Thrun and Nick Robertson, two players who – while not stars – have already played full season(s) in the NHL.
| Voter | Vote |
|---|---|
| Cathy | 8 |
| Brigstew | 6 |
| Species | 8 |
| Hardev | 11 |
| shinson93 | 13 |
| Cameron | 12 |
| Zone Entry | 9 |
| Svalbard38 | 11 |
| dhammm | 15 |
| adam | 13 |
| Weighted Average | 10.6 |
| Highest Vote | 6 |
| Lowest Vote | 15 |
I think most people are pretty high on him by now, at least compared to where they had him last year. Four of our voters had him in the top 10, and no one lower than 15.
The Opinions
Here's what the other voters had to say about him:
Shinson93: We were all banking on Johansson to gain some size based on his father and brothers, but I wasn’t expecting such an overall development spurt (reminds me of Knies). He is kinetic, assertive and creative. He tends to drive the play out of the zone, usually on his own stick, rather than waiting for the play to come to him and making simple passes. He doesn’t wait for his teammates or get bogged down; he just goes. Sometimes he gets caught out or lost because he’s not seeing the bigger picture, but he sure seems confident. I want to see more.
Cathy: I likely ranked Johansson absurdly high, and I don’t care. You know what I like about him? He has so much nerve. My god, the things he just does are incredible, dekes out his own forwards because he likes having the puck, rolls into the offensive zone with no plan whatsoever, and then manages (sometimes) to do the kind of tour William Nylander makes famous when he realizes everyone else is a zone and a half back. He was playing his off-hand defensively when he was still needing to figure out how to defend, and he picked it up! Sure, sure, it helps that his dad runs the club, so no one is going to bench him for his chutzpah. He’s also not going to be held back from lack of confidence to try things. They aren’t Willy and Kappy, but Johansson and TLK are my favourites.
dhammm: I find Johansson interesting in how he highlights the pitfalls of many public prospect models. Some public models seem to take weight too seriously, so because Johansson was a svelte 140-something on draft day, they dismiss him. Others get stuck on priors, so they see Johansson’s D-1 and D0 seasons and ding him. Johansson’s D+1 J20 Nationell performance, his tentative steps into the SHL, and the rave reviews he’s gotten from scouts are all reasons to be intrigued. Models might still get the right answer here but for the wrong reasons—you’re probably not going to lose often if you bet that this or that 4th round pick won’t make it as an everyday NHLer—but I’m up on Johansson from where I was a year ago.
Svalbard38: Johansson is a guy I didn’t pay a ton of attention to this past season, mostly because I was wary of getting too invested in a defenceman who weighed in at 147 pounds at his first dev camp, but thanks to, by his own admission, the magic of Hawaiian pizza, he’s up to somewhere around 165. Still on the light side for an NHL D, but he’s no longer in unplayable territory, and he’s probably not done growing either. Apart from the occasional highlight, my introduction to Johansson was at the World Junior Summer Showcase earlier in the summer. Sweden played him as an all-situations guy, including a shift defending a 5-on-3. The offensive skill is there, he’s got a decent shot and great hands. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him at the WJC. I’d also like to see him work on cleaning his game up a bit. One of the things I was looking to understand when I watched the WJSS was why he was 4th in his junior league in PIMs, and I got my answer in the form of a knee-on-knee hit on John Whipple and an elbow up high on Teddy Stiga. Good to see some snarl but I’d like to see it channeled a bit better.
Let us know what you think! Are you drinking the Johansson kool-aid like me? Or are you more conservative and want to see him play well consistently at a higher level first?
