Last year, under a new General Manager managing their draft, Toronto started a different trend than what they had followed under Dubas – though I can only say it's a bit of a trend now that we've had two drafts under Treliving, despite having two different directors of amateur scouting. Last year, in the seventh round Toronto took two defensemen who made all but the most degenerate scouts say, "Who?" Those two being Matt Lahey and Nathan Mayes.
This year, in the sixth round, they did it again with Rylan Fellinger. What they have in common is that all three are 6'4" or taller, still somewhat lanky for their height right around 200 lbs, had little to no points but were all good skaters.
THE BASICS: STATS AND CONTEXT
Position: Right-shot defenseman
League: OHL
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 196 lbs
Birth date: May 16th, 2007
Fellinger has never been a big name in prospect circles. He was drafted to the OHL at 255th overall back in 2023. Back then, he was listed as 6'2" and 170 lbs, so he's another guy who's grown a couple of inches and 26 lbs over the last two years. His 14 points in 25 games was good for 12th in the year leading up to the OHL draft, when he was 15 years old playing in an U18 AAA league. If you filter for only defensemen his age, he moves up to 6th most points for defensemen, but with half the points of the leaders. One thing that's worth noting is that none of the defensemen in his age group in that league were drafted to the NHL, Fellinger is the only one.
The year after that, Fellinger played in the OHL for his rookie season as a 16 year old. He had four points, all assists, in 58 games. That was good for 11th in the OHL for defensemen in that age group, but he played in the 4th most games. Even if he wasn't producing offensively, him playing so much immediately at his age, after being drafted so late, is somewhat remarkable on its own.
The same trends continued this year. He played in 64 games for Flint, mostly on the second pair on the right side. According to a helpful site I wish I knew of before now, his usage was extremely skewed defensively. He averaged one of the most defensive zone time totals on the team, and was heavily used on the penalty kill. They didn't get much deployment on offensive zone starts, and virtually no power play time.
Despite his defensive usage, Fellinger has some interesting things going for him. First, even with his size and defensive leaning, he is not a very physical guy in seeking contact. That may be why he also takes very few penalties, only 23 penalty minutes taken this year with 10 minutes the year before. Second, Fellinger has some limited promise when it comes to moving the puck. He reportedly completed 88% of the passes he made, but did also tend to give away the puck a bit too much. From what I saw, that's mostly because he may hang onto it too long and have it stolen or knocked away. When he passed it, he didn't turn it over often.
Next year will be interesting. The entire top pair from last season either turned pro (Blake Smith who signed with Toronto already) or committed to the NCAA (Matthew Mania). Fellinger's partner on the second pairing was an import draft pick the past two years, and may not return for this coming season either. So, Fellinger may suddenly find himself as the team's top overall defenseman. Being on the top pair and being used in more all situations will help him get more chances to contribute offensively. He might not get any more time on the power play, but even being a second or third option there on a rebuilding team could help set him up for a bigger increase in his production.
THE GOOD: SIZE, SKATING, SOME PUCK MOVEMENT POTENTIAL
Stop me if you've heard this before: the most immediate things you notice about Fellinger is that he's big (6'4" and 196 lbs) and skates well. That's not to say that his skating couldn't improve, because it could. He specifically could add more explosiveness to his acceleration, and smooth out his pivots and edges to improve his agility. He won't ever be an elite skater, but he's mobile for his size and I think he can get better enough by hitting the gym and working with skating coaches.
The classic combination for a defenseman is why Fellinger has a bit of a reputation for his defense – it's the main reason why he was trusted to play so much as a 16 year old late OHL pick. His coach on Flint lauded his work ethic and his competitiveness, which if you've been paying attention are two traits the Leafs seem to really look for in their prospects under Leach and Treliving. I've seen what few scouts to comment on him at all mention he tends to keep a good gap when defending against transitions through the neutral zone, and he is a steady guy in his own end. Here's some clips of his defensive game, it's not flashy but is simple and reliable for junior.
Rylan Fellinger (#65) - Defense Highlights
The other area of promise that Fellinger has that I care about is his ability to drive transitions. I mentioned his good passing completion rate above, but his skating also helps him in scenarios where he can carry it himself. His skating may not be ideal, but in junior it's good enough (with his size) to be able to beat forecheckers more often than not. What holds him back in this area is his puck handling, which lags behind his passing for effectiveness.
Fellinger showed some improvement in his transition game through the season from the few games I was able to watch before last year's game streams were pulled down. It still needs work, but there's something to build off of. It will never make him an elite transition driver, but for his style of defense he just needs it to be reliable enough that he's not a complete liability. The better he gets at it, the more value he can provide.
Rylan Fellinger (#65) - Transitions
Finally, there's Fellinger's offense. On the one hand, having 7 points in his draft year and only 4 the year before is not the sign of an offensively capable defenseman. However, there are some things I'd point out. First, all but one of his points in the last two years were primary points. Having watched him a bit, it is a bit weird he couldn't sneak in some secondary assists, but I'm guessing that's because Flint was a below average teams with one of the worst offenses in the league, but with a top 10 defense and penalty kill.
But watching the clips below, you can see some rare flashes of something a bit more. He occasionally shows a pretty wicked wrist shot that can be worked on to maybe be a low-key weapon at higher levels. He has some instincts to jump in off the point to facilitate an offensive possession. That passing completion rate he is for all passes, including those in the offensive zone. His offensive game may be simple, but he can maybe find ways to legitimately contribute to help the offense move along without turning it over in at least a safe and limited manner.
Rylan Fellinger (#65) - Offense Highlights
THE FLAWS: OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE REFINEMENT
Fellinger finds himself in the same spot as Lahey and Mayes did last year. Size and decent skating is great and all, but you need more than that to make it to the NHL, let alone have an impact there. So far, I thought Mayes showed some noteworthy improvements last year and developed enough of a passing/transition game to make him more well rounded with his defense. Lahey, on the other hand, didn't look all that impactful to me in the USHL as a D+1 guy last year.
I've touched on some of the the problems with Fellinger's game above, but for me the biggest areas he needs to improve on include:
- Defensive assertiveness, because he can let the game come to him too often instead of trying to influence the play with his size and reach. Getting better acceleration will help give him the confidence to do this so he can quickly close to cause turnovers.
- Decision making with the puck AND puck handling, because as mentioned he turns the puck over too much and it happens from hanging onto it instead of passing it while he has time. Some of this can be solved by making quicker and better decisions to pass it, some if it can be helped by improving his puck handling so he's less likely to have it taken off him so easily.
- Overall skating improvements, because it will help so much of his game but especially make his defense, retrievals and zone exits, and transitions through the neutral zone more viable at higher levels. The main things are his lateral agility and the quickness of his first two steps.
Everything else is just gravy. I would also like him to make his shot into a more consistent weapon, get more confidence and/or the green light to jump into the offense more instead of being so purely safe and uninvolved offensively, add more of a physical edge to his game in the right spots, and so on.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Last year, despite Lahey being drafted two players before Mayes was taken by Toronto, when I watched the two I liked Mayes more. I'd say a lot more, but that feels meaningless considering the scale of difference between the two is a lot smaller than between the two of them and defensemen with more legitimate NHL chances.
However, in watching Fellinger I definitely get more of a similar feel from him now as I did with Mayes, than what I did with Lahey. There's more going on with him, even if it's just some flashes here and there. Some of that may be his lack of confidence to try more, or because of how he's directed to act by his coach, a mix of the two, or something else. I think he's got a long way to go across the board, and heavy odds are on him never making the NHL. But at this point, I'd just like to see him take some steps forward with his overall game like Mayes did.
So I wouldn't consider him a real thing yet, not by a long shot, but he could be one of the more interesting long term projects they have on defense among this new trend of theirs to swing on unknown defensemen who are big and skate pretty well in the late rounds.
And with Fellinger's profile done, that will be it for my introduction series to all of Toronto's new draft picks. I actually did mean to include Hlacar if only to see if there was actually anything there at all, even if it wound up being a short profile where I just shake my head at the choice. But the OHL game videos were taken down before I could even finish going through as many games as I wanted from Hopkins, Fellinger and Nansi, and I didn't get to see anything from Hlacar at the development camp, since they had no streamed scrimmage, aside from his fight on day one. So... let's just assume he's a goon and a confusing draft choice and move on.
Thanks for reading!
I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.
Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!
