Good morning, everyone, it is once again Monday.
On Saturday the Leafs collectively and individually tried very hard, and outshot their opponents by a big margin. Sort of. There is one interesting note that makes the score a little more understandable, and that's that by unblocked shots, they were dead even in all-situations. Most of this was the Leafs shooting but either missing or seeing the shot blocked. But that's a quibble. It was a performance good enough to get a win most of the time.
In ordinary circumstances no one would care much about a one-goal loss with a long list of injured players from the cream of the roster. But times are not ordinary.
So I guess we have to let the Leafs back in the door for tomorrow's game. Troy Stecher should be in the lineup tomorrow, and neither Auston Matthews or Anthony Stolarz are eligible to play as they were both put on IR, possibly just for roster management reasons. Neither is hurt badly.
If you missed it, Matthews injury is not the mysterious thing he had wrong last year.
I noticed that Marshall Rifai, who has been on LTIR since the start of the season with an injure during training camp, is eligible to come off on November 20. That doesn't mean he's recovered from surgery, but when he is, he can be put on waivers to be returned to the AHL.
Also on Saturday, Elliotte Friedman reported that the Leafs are looking to make a hockey trade. Player for player, and not futures. Now, he phrased it as testing the market to see who has value. And this might end up fruitless because there are good reasons these trades don't happen often.
Before your mind goes immediately to that guy you don't like, the process here is to do something that will likely be painful, not getting rid of unwanted players. Friedman made it clear the "core" is not involved, but that leaves open a question of who that applies to.
I got the Leafs roster and sorted them by all-situations time on ice. Because the guys at the very bottom aren't going to return anything other than similar guys who play 10 minutes a game. The guys at the top should be the core, right? And that leaves the middle.
| Player | GP | TOI | TOI/GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly | 18 | 394.62 | 21.92 |
| Jake McCabe | 19 | 409.13 | 21.53 |
| Auston Matthews | 17 | 361.37 | 21.26 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 19 | 392.65 | 20.67 |
| Matthew Knies | 19 | 390.42 | 20.55 |
| William Nylander | 16 | 322.2 | 20.14 |
| Brandon Carlo | 18 | 361.07 | 20.06 |
| John Tavares | 19 | 341.58 | 17.98 |
| Chris Tanev | 8 | 138.7 | 17.34 |
| Simon Benoit | 18 | 310.37 | 17.24 |
| Nicolas Roy | 19 | 283.42 | 14.92 |
| Bobby McMann | 19 | 277.32 | 14.6 |
| Philippe Myers | 10 | 142.32 | 14.23 |
| Nicholas Robertson | 18 | 239.53 | 13.31 |
| Matias MacCelli | 18 | 239.37 | 13.3 |
| Easton Cowan | 11 | 142.05 | 12.91 |
| Max Domi | 19 | 243.07 | 12.79 |
| Dakota Mermis | 4 | 50.03 | 12.51 |
| Dakota Joshua | 19 | 233.9 | 12.31 |
| Calle Jarnkrok | 13 | 142.72 | 10.98 |
| Steven Lorentz | 13 | 134.15 | 10.32 |
| Sammy Blais | 6 | 50.12 | 8.35 |
Oliver Ekman-Larsson sits just outside the core, but he sure plays a lot – third for defenders. And he's on the very short list of reliable defenders. He seems like a person they could trade and get back value, but that might be the wrong kind of pain.
Matthew Knies is an obvious no, but what about Brandon Carlo? Do you trade one of the worst sufferers of the Leafs Malaise? What can you get?
Simon Benoit has way too many minutes per game, which is likely why he's on everyone's hit list. But what does he bring? Another guy just like him.
Nic Roy's name is interesting. If the team still had David Kämpf, but no, he's a Canuck now, so I think Roy stays.
Bobby McMann. It would be painful, he's a good enough player to actually have some value. He can play on top lines. He's not "the problem" so no one is going to balk at importing Malaise onto their team. This is exactly the kind of player that a low-level hockey trade could involve. And the more you don't like it, the more likely it is to happen.
Speaking of too many minutes, Phil Myers needs to be in the AHL or playing 8 minutes a game, one or the other.
Nick Robertson. "Oh you can't trade him now," I've heard. Well, no. Actually now is the time to move him. He looks fabulous – Malaise immune, and able to add value to a top line. And he's young. Every team that thinks about someone like Jeff Skinner or Kasperi Kapanen at the deadline can now, finally, consider Robertson.
The question the Leafs have to answer is if what they see now is real, can be built upon, or is just the sign of unsustainable levels of effort and a run of weak competition. If they don't think it's all that real, they need to cut a deal right now.
Matias Maccelli seems fine, is a work in progress and he hasn't progressed too far yet. Easton Cowan is a no.
So now here we are, the players Craig Berube uses because he you have to have a fourth line. Max Domi, even with all the injuries, is playing less than he ever has. The Dakotas are useful role players, depth guys, not value guys. Steven Lorentz has been good at his job, and he's not going anywhere. Sammy Blais is a waiver claim.
And I skipped Calle Järnkrok. He's got a glow around him this year because he hasn't played much, so Berube must hate him, and Berube is bad, so anybody he doesn't like is good, and he got some goals early. I like Järnkrok a lot and he's a useful depth player. His days of top six work are over, if they ever really existed. He's not bringing back value.
Good luck, Brad, you're going to need it.
Now, the other day when I said, is now the time to really consider asking Morgan Rielly to waive the NMC, I got some pretty contemptuous answers. But outside the fandom bubble of people who like Rielly for the type of player he is, where everyone is just used to how desperately bad at defence he is, the cost of his weaknesses, when his strengths have been hard to see a lot lately might be too high.
Yes, he plays the most minutes on the Leafs. Although the longer Ekman-Larsson is the PP1 defender, the more that time will decline. But if he didn't have that NMC, I think he'd be the name on everyone's lips, just like he was last summer.
No Leafs today, you have all day to fantasy trade Max Domi for Rasmus Andersson.
Have a good Monday.
